New Poll Suggests Gingrich Surging in Fla. | FCN ON THE TRAIL

7:48 PM, Jan 25, 2012   |    comments
  • Share
  • Email
  • Print
  • - A A A +

3:58 p.m.: From Romney at Cuban American fundraiser: "As president, I hope to see Fidel Castro taken off this earth. I doubt he'll take time in the sky, he'll find a nether region with more comfort."

3:42 p.m.: Romney gets standing ovation at Cuban American fundraiser, about 250 people here

3:24 p.m.: Romney at Univision event was asked by the moderator how much money he has and could not give an answer; he  estimates between $150 and $200 million "or so." Didn't get a very good reaction from the crowd.

3:15 p.m.: Mitt Romney spoke at the Meet the Candidates forum at 2:30, now has a fundraising event at 3:20. That's his last event of the day. 

1:05 p.m.:  Rick Santorum canceled his Meet the Candidates appearance in Miami citing a scheduling conflict. He only had one event listed on his schedule today - fundraising this morning.

Earlier this morning: Gingrich spoke at the Meet the Candidates forum at 9 a.m., and now continues on to four additional events. Gingrich called Romney "anti-immigration." Romney said that was "mean and unnecessary" but then moderator asked if Gingrich could be his running mate and he said, "as a VP, I wouldn't rule him out"

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- What a difference a big win can make.

A new poll indicates that since Newt Gingrich's double digit victory in Saturday's South Carolina primary, the former House speaker's surged among people likely to vote in next Tuesday's Republican presidential primary, and he's moved ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

MORE: Political Florida

According to a Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday morning, Romney is at 36% support, with Gingrich at 34%, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania at 13%, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 10%, and seven percent undecided. Romney's two point margin is well within the poll's sampling error.

The survey was conducted Thursday through Monday, both before and after the South Carolina primary. Looking at the numbers for Thursday through Saturday, before the results of the Palmetto State contest were known, Romney had a 37% to 26% lead over Gingrich, with Santorum and Paul each at 15%.

PICTURES: GOP Candidates Head to Jacksonville Wed.

But looking just at Sunday and Monday numbers, after the news of Gingrich's big win in South Carolina, the former House speaker has a 40% to 34% advantage over Romney, with Santorum at 11% and Paul at 6%.

"Florida is essentially a dead heat and a two-man race between Gov. Mitt Romney and Speaker Newt Gingrich entering the last week of the campaign," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Gingrich's South Carolina victory clearly gives him a boost in Florida. The question is whether there is more of that to come, or whether any bump from a previous victory will dissipate as happened to Rick Santorum in New Hampshire after winning Iowa and Romney in South Carolina after taking New Hampshire."

According to the survey, 38% say they might change their mind on which candidate they are backing, and there's little difference among Gingrich and Romney supporters in terms of thinking they may alter their decision.

The poll indicates that Romney is viewed as more likely to best handle the economy and shares the most values with voters, while Gingrich is seen by more those questioned as having the knowledge and experience to be president, being a strong leader and best at dealing with foreign policy.

According to the survey, Gingrich has a 37%-33% margin over Romney among men while Romney holds a 38%-31% advantage over Gingrich among women. Gingrich has a 13-point lead over Romney among those who describe themselves as white evangelical Christians and leads by 15 points among self-described tea party movement supporters.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted January 19-23, with 601 likely GOP primary voters in Florida questioned by phone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points.

First Coast News